Forecasting and assessment of the energy security risk in fuzzy environment

Artykuł - publikacja recenzowana


Tytuł
Forecasting and assessment of the energy security risk in fuzzy environment
Odpowiedzialność
Paweł Ziemba, Aneta Becker, Jarosław Becker
Twórcy
Sumy twórców
3 autorów
Punktacja publikacji
Osoba Dysc. Pc k m P U Pu Opis
0000-0002-4414-8547 5.6 140 1 3 140,00 1,0000 140,0000 Art.
Gł. język publikacji
Angielski (English)
Data publikacji
2021
Objętość
20 (stron).
Szacowana objętość
1,25 (arkuszy wydawniczych)
Identyfikator DOI
10.3390/en14185934
Adres URL
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/18/5934/pdf
Adres URL
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/18
Uwaga ogólna
Publikacja dostępna na licencji Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Uwaga ogólna
Received: 31 July 2021, revised: 14 September 2021, accepted: 16 September 2021, published: 18 September 2021.
Uwaga ogólna
Academic editor: Erik Möllerström.
Uwaga ogólna
Publikacja wydana w : Special Issue "Energy―History and Time Trends" / editor Erik Möllerström. Ta publikacja należy do sekcji : "Wind, Wave and Tidal Energy".
Uwaga ogólna
Supplementary materials are available online at https://www.mdpi.com/article/ 10.3390/en14185934/s1.
Uwaga ogólna
Author contributions: conceptualization P.Z.; methodology P.Z., A.B., J.B.; validation P.Z., A.B., J.B.; formal analysis P.Z., A.B.; investigation A.B.; resources J.B.; writing-original draft preparation P.Z.; writing-review and editing A.B., J.B.; supervision P.Z. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Finansowanie
The project is partially financed within the framework of the program of the Minister of Science and Higher Education under the name "Regional Excellence Initiative" in the years 2019-2022. 001/RID/2018/19
Cechy publikacji
  • Oryginalny artykuł naukowy
  • OpenAccess
Dane OpenAccess
CC_BY - Licencja,
FINAL_PUBLISHED - Wersja tekstu,
OPEN_JOURNAL - Sposób publikacji,
AT_PUBLICATION - Moment udostępnienia,
2021-09-18 - Data udostępnienia
Słowa kluczowe
Czasopismo
Energies
( ISSN 1996-1073 )
Kraj wydania: Szwajcaria (Schweiz)
Zeszyt: vol. 14 iss. 18
Nr: 5934
Pobierz opis jako:
BibTeX, RIS
Data zgłoszenia do bazy Publi
2021-10-16
PBN
Wyświetl
WorkId
28187

Abstrakt

en

Energy security is of key importance for states and international organizations. An important issue in energy security is the assessment of current and future energy security methods.
While the assessment of the current methods is relatively easy, since it is based on recent information, the assessment of the future methods is burdened with uncertainty and is therefore much
more difficult. Therefore, the aim of the article is to develop a new approach for assessing current
and future energy security issues based on a complex security index, supported by the computationally transparent fuzzy multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. The use of the fuzzy MCDA methods allows one to capture the uncertainty of assessments and forecasts, and the forecasts themselves were based on the Holt’s method; the international energy security risk index (IESRI) was used as the source of the data to generate the forecasts. The research compared two data sources for forecasts (IESRI categories and metrics) and two methods of forecast fuzzification. As a
result, the forecasted assessments and rankings of energy security for the 2020–2030 period were obtained. On the basis of these forecasts, general trends shaping energy security were also indicated.

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