Statistical techniques for modeling of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration in the air

Artykuł - publikacja recenzowana


Tytuł
Statistical techniques for modeling of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration in the air
Odpowiedzialność
Jakub Nowosad, Alfred Stach, Idalia Kasprzyk, Kazimiera Chłopek, Katarzyna Dąbrowska-Zapart, Łukasz Grewling, Małgorzata Latałowa, Anna Pędziszewska, Barbara Majkowska-Wojciechowska, Dorota Myszkowska, Krystyna Piotrowska-Weryszko, Elżbieta Weryszko-Chmielewska, Małgorzata Puc, Piotr Rapiejko, Tomasz Stosik
Twórcy
Sumy twórców
15 autorów
Punktacja publikacji
Osoba Dysc. Pc k m P U Pu Opis
0000-0001-6734-9352 6.7 25 1 15 6,46 0,2582 6,4550 Art.
Brak ORCID Brak deklaracji dyscypliny
Gł. język publikacji
Angielski (English)
Data publikacji
2018
Objętość
13 (stron).
Szacowana objętość
0,81 (arkuszy wydawniczych)
Identyfikator DOI
10.1007/s10453-018-9514-x
Adres URL
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10453-018-9514-x.pdf
Uwaga ogólna
First Online: 16 April 2018.
Uwaga ogólna
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International(CC BY) license.
Cechy publikacji
  • Oryginalny artykuł naukowy
  • OpenAccess
Dane OpenAccess
CC_BY - Licencja,
FINAL_PUBLISHED - Wersja tekstu,
OTHER - Sposób publikacji,
AT_PUBLICATION - Moment udostępnienia,
2018-04-16 - Data udostępnienia
Słowa kluczowe
Czasopismo
Aerobiologia
( ISSN 0393-5965 eISSN 1573-3025 )
Zeszyt: tom 34 zeszyt 3
Strony: 301-313
Pobierz opis jako:
BibTeX, RIS
Data zgłoszenia do bazy Publi
2019-03-05
PBN
Wyświetl
WorkId
21295

Abstrakt

en

Prediction of allergic pollen concentration is one of the most important goals of aerobiology. Past studies have used a broad range of modeling techniques; however, the results cannot be directly compared owing to the use of different datasets, validation methods, and evaluation metrics. The main aim of this study was to compare nine statistical modeling techniques using the same dataset. An additional goal was to assess the importance of predictors for the best model. Aerobiological data for Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen counts were obtained from nine cities in Poland and covered between five and 16 years of measurements. Meteorological data from the AGRI4CAST project were used as a predictor variables. The results of 243 final models (3 taxa × 9 cities × 9 techniques) were validated using a repeated k-fold cross-validation and compared using relative and absolute performance statistics. Afterward, the variable importance of predictors in the best models was calculated and compared. Simple models performed poorly. On the other hand, regression trees and rule-based models proved to be the most accurate for all of the taxa. Cumulative growing degree days proved to be the single most important predictor variable in the random forest models of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula. Finally, the study suggested potential improvements in aerobiological modeling, such as the application of robust cross-validation techniques and the use of gridded variables.

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